It’s increasingly likely that we could see a work stoppage in baseball in 2027. The collective bargaining agreement between MLB and the players’ association expires on December 1, 2026. Baseball owners are expected to push for a salary cap, which the players’ association will strongly resist. This conflict could not only lead to a work stoppage but may even delay or potentially cancel the 2027 season. As we enjoy this upcoming season, fans might want to savor it, because it could be the last baseball we see for two years. Currently, the Los Angeles Dodgers lead all teams with a payroll of $394 million. Only three teams have payrolls exceeding $300 million: the Dodgers, New York Mets, and New York Yankees. At the other end of the spectrum, the Miami Marlins carry the smallest payroll at $73 million. They are one of seven teams spending less than $100 million. A potential salary cap would likely or at least should be set at around $280 million. If that figure was used today, only five teams would exceed it, and two of those would barely be over the limit. A salary cap would likely also include a payroll floor to be fair to players, which could also help create more competitive balance across the league. If the floor was set around $180 million, a minimum amount teams would be required to spend, more than half of MLB teams would need to increase their payrolls. While the players’ association may resist a cap, a properly structured cap and floor system could actually increase the total money going to players. It would also create more balance and competitiveness in the sport. Some owners may oppose a high payroll floor, but the reality is that teams appear to have the resources to comply. Rumors suggest that every MLB team has a “war chest” of at least $75 million in case there is a potential work stoppage. This indicates that many teams are already generating enough revenue to increase payrolls. Small-market teams often argue they cannot compete due to attendance limitations, but if they put a stronger product on the field, fans are likely to respond, by attending games, watching games, and purchasing merchandise. One major difference between the NFL and MLB has always been television revenue. The NFL has the largest TV contracts, with every game part of a national package. While MLB does not have an identical arrangement, it has steadily added national TV deals in recent years, including contracts with streaming services. Shared revenue is growing and should be distributed fairly to players. I’m not taking sides between the owners and the players, but it seems like common sense solutions could resolve many of these issues. Unfortunately, in negotiations like this, common sense often gets lost as both sides focus on maximizing their own financial gain, basically everyone wants to get as rich as possible. That’s why I believe it is very unlikely we will see a full MLB season in 2027, or any season at all.
